Looks Like Lena Taylor Is In

I'm not aware of an official announcement, but word on the street is that state senator Lena Taylor will be running against Scott Walker for Milwaukee County executive this coming spring.

Conventional thinking is that to defeat Walker, the Dems need a candidate who can reach into the suburbs to take a chunk out of his base.

But while the suburbs might be Walker's base in terms of percentage of support and campaign donations, it's arguable that the city is what won him the election in 2004; and this makes Taylor a solid choice to upend him in 2008.

In the 2004 spring election in which Walker defeated David Riemer, the total vote was 251,158 with 88,132 coming from the suburbs and 163,026 coming from the city. And while Walker won most overwhelmingly in the suburbs -- 57,373 to 29,342 -- he also won the city by a margin of 78,726 to 71,647.

What makes this even more important is turnout. Although some may believe the suburbs would be more likely to get out to vote for a spring election, it was actually the city that had the best turnout.

In comparison to November 2004 when the presidential race was on the ballot, the suburban totals from April 2004 were only 42 percent of the suburban totals from November 2004, while the city totals from the spring were a full 59 percent of the city's fall turnout.

And in comparison to the turnout this past fall, the suburban totals in April 2004 were 59 percent of the suburban totals from November 2006, and the city totals in April 2004 were 97 percent of the city totals in November 2006.

In other words, it was really the city that showed up to elect the county executive in 2004, while the suburbs, which are often credited with being the part of the county that's kept Walker on top, largely stayed home.

So this means that Walker's opponent really needs to focus on changing, as opposed to getting out, the city vote (see UPDATE below). And Taylor is a great candidate for this task considering the wide swath of Milwaukee that she represents as state senator, including 33 wards that Walker won in 2004.

By focusing on a couple of key points, such as transit and the parks, Taylor should be able to capitalize on the media coverage of proposed cuts to these areas by Walker and, as a result, clearly differentiate herself from Walker when it comes to issues that are of high concern for much of the city.

And Taylor will have the added bonus of being recognized as a known Democratic politician, unlike Riemer in 2004, which will highlight the fact that Walker is the Republican in the technically nonpartisan race (voters don't get the handy "D" and "R" listed on the ballot for them).

Doyle won 72 percent of the city vote last November. If Taylor matches that, or even a little less, along with the suburban totals netted by Riemer in 2004 -- which shouldn't be difficult considering the bluing of the 'burbs in recent years -- then she should win the race handily.

And, if not, she goes back to her position as state senator. But, if Walker loses, he won't have such a comfy fall -- it'd be a long two years out of office before the next governor's race in 2010.

UPDATE: Xoff makes a good point in the comments that the hotly contested mayoral race for Milwaukee in spring 2004 was a big reason for the strong city turnout in that election, which suggests Taylor will need to do some getting out the vote work since there doesn't appear to be a heated race for mayor on tap, though it could get hot if David Clarke enters the fray again (this potentially creates a bit of a quandry for Clarke, who is known to be tight with Walker).

But there is still the significant issue of city voters pulling the lever for Walker once they were out to vote in April 2004, which something Taylor has the strong potential to remedy.

And even if you split the difference in the city turnout for the county exec special election in 2002 with the turnout in 2004 -- which would drop the number to around 125,000 -- garnering around 70 percent of the city vote like Doyle did last November still seems to be a pretty solid benchmark for Taylor, and that's not even considering potential gains she could make in the bluing 'burbs.

Scott Walker Wants Four More Years

Or at least two more -- the next gubernatorial race is in 2010.

It's officially unofficial, but it seems pretty clear Scott Walker is getting set to run for Milwaukee County executive again next year.

I don't want to harp on the fact that Walker suggested on a number of occasions that he wouldn't run for another term as county executive beyond this current one. After all, minds can change. Heck, he probably thought he'd be governor by now.

But what did peak my interest in the Journal Sentinel article on his teaser announcement this morning was the response he gave to why he ended his doom-and-gloom tour last year on the county's fiscal situation. According to the article, the fiscal outlook got a lot brighter, in Walker's view, because of "a new labor agreement that included health care concessions."

What's interesting about this is that the structure of those health care concessions was actually the idea of Dave Riemer, who was Walker's opponent in the county executive race in 2004. Riemer was also the major consultant behind the changes in the state health plan that has saved the state tens of millions of dollars in recent years.

GOP state Senator Alberta Darling even called the new state health plan designed by Riemer "a shining example" and "the best in the country." It seems based on Walker's comments yesterday that Milwaukee county is now noticing similar benefits of the plan.

But what's even more interesting is that Riemer has acknowledged as recently as last September that he's considering another run at the county executive post in 2008.

I imagine Walker's campaign team will find a better way to explain the transition from doom-and-gloom to sunshine (or at least overcast) if that match-up materializes.

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Side-Note: It's also worth noting that AFSCME District Council 48 has been pushing for Riemer's plan since September 2004, but the county always rejected it until the latest negotiations this past December. Perhaps the support the Greater Milwaukee Committee gave the plan in September 2006 finally changed some minds...including, quite likely, Walker's.